Durable goods orders fell 1.2% in October, giving up a portion of the upward 2.2% swing in September. Much of that weakness may be attributed to a drop in volatile aircraft orders, which fell 18.6% in October after surging more than 30% during the previous two months. Read More »
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Durable goods orders jumped 2.2% in September after being revised up slightly for the month of August. A second monthly surge in aircraft orders – up 31.5% in September – contributed to those gains. Vehicle orders were flat but will likely pick up with sales to those who are replacing vehicles destroyed by hurricanes and fires in recent months.
Durable goods excluding the highly volatile transportation sector rose a moderate but still solid 0.7% last month, matching the pace of August. Gains outside of the transportation sector were strongest in communications equipment for the second month in a row.
Durable goods orders rebounded 1.7% in August after a drop of 6.8% in July. A 44.8% surge in the volatile aircraft sector accounted for a good portion of those outsized gains. Core (non aircraft and defense) durable orders also surprised to the upside
Durable goods orders dropped 6.8% in July after surging in June. Much of the weakness may be attributed to a 70% drop in aircraft orders which soared nearly 129% in the wake of the Paris air show.
Orders for new vehicles fell 1.2%, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Vehicle producers are scaling back since aggressive incentives and financing deals liquidated what was left in pent-up demand in recent years. The industry now relies on replacement demand.
Durable goods orders jumped 6.5% in June, following upward revisions to May. A 131% increase in orders following the Paris Air Show was a major contributor to those gains. Boeing alone reported $37 billion in new orders. Aircraft orders have long lead times, however, taking as many as five years to complete. They are also subject to last minute cancellations. Core durable goods orders, excluding the volatile aircraft and defense sectors, actually contracted by 0.1% during the month.
Underlying Trend Stronger
New orders for durable goods in March came in below expectations for more than a one percent gain, adding 0.7%. However, that followed substantial upward revisions to the February data. March follows on two strong months of growth: January up 2.4% and February up 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, the first quarter looks the strongest for growth in new orders since the third quarter of 2014.
Core capital goods orders most closely track business investment, offering an insight on momentum in the upcoming quarter’s GDP component. Orders for core capital goods, stripping out defense and aircraft, edged up 0.2% in March, marking a sixth consecutive increase.
The index of industrial production posted a sharp decline in the utilities sector, which offset larger-than-expected increases in construction materials and business equipment. The large, divergent moves in utilities and construction both reflected the unusually mild winter weather in February. Utility consumption plummeted because people didn’t have to crank up their thermostats during the month; the seasonally adjusted data underline the difference compared to last year. Conversely, production of construction supplies, usually delayed until Spring, started during the height of Winter. These moves are likely to show a reversal during March
Industrial production rebounded a more-than-expected 0.8% in December after declining in the month of November. Much of the turnaround in factory output may be attributed to a return of cooler winter temperatures. Utility usage jumped 6.6% during alone after three months of decline. Manufacturing activity increased at a more moderate 0.2% pace as a spurt in vehicle production offset weakness in nondurable goods production, mostly paper and chemicals. Business equipment picked up in the information processing sector, which could be a harbinger of better investment going forward.
Durable goods orders fell 4.6% in November as orders for new aircraft plummeted. Look for a bounce-back in new aircraft orders in December since Boeing scrambled to lock in a major sale to Iran before the start of the new administration. Core capital goods (nondefense and ex-aircraft) orders rose a solid 0.9% after a sluggish October. Gains were uneven
Durable goods orders surged 4.8% in October after slight upward revisions to a lackluster summer. Gains were driven by a 94.1% jump in new aircraft orders, which are extremely volatile and have long lag times before delivery. Orders are still off slightly from one year ago, but beginning to plateau. Vehicle orders, which had been one of the few bright spots in the data, fell during the month. Look for more aggressive financing deals as the automakers struggle with saturation in the vehicle market; they have also overextended themselves on the lending front, which will mean an increase in defaults