The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% between November and December and 2.1% from one year ago. That marks the fastest year-over-year gain in the overall CPI index since mid-2014 and suggests that the downward pressure on prices from the oil bust are not behind us. Dollar strength, combined with the ongoing move away from bricks to clicks and a new round of traditional retail store closings, should keep prices from moving up too rapidly
Posts tagged Strong Dollar
Retail sales jumped 0.6% in December following a slight upward revision to sales for the prior month. A 2.4% surge in vehicle sales, helped by generous incentives, dominated the rise in retail sales. The automakers tend to do all they can to move their most popular vehicles at the end of the year so they…
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in November with increases in prices for services offsetting weakness in the prices for many goods. The major exception was airline fares, which fell on a seasonally adjusted basis. That prompted a surge in travel during the month and over the Thanksgiving holiday, which jumped dramatically, according to the airlines. Overall transportation costs, however, moved higher
Housing starts surged more than 25% in October to a 1.3 million-unit rate, the strongest pace since August 2007. September starts were also revised up slightly. Gains were concentrated in the South and West, most notably in the single-family sector, which is where we need them to see more broad-based gains in employment. The South also reported a rebound in multifamily starts, which had been delayed by heavy flooding in August. The Northeast has recouped delays
The U.S. trade balance in goods narrowed much more than expected in September. Exports for capital goods, industrial materials and consumer goods (excluding autos) all picked up over the month, while imports waned. The result suggests that investment in the global economy is showing rare signs of life in what has been a lackluster environment. Most developed economies remain weak, while some emerging markets are finally bottoming. The shift is subtle but important, as it could mark a more important shift in the global economy.
Import prices fell 0.2% in August, slightly more than expected on the heels of another drop in energy prices. The slide in import prices on a year-over-year basis, however, has abated quite substantially during the last year. Part of this reflects some stabilization in oil prices; the remainder correlate with stabilization in the value of the dollar against a broad basket of currencies since the start of the year.
The vote by the UK to opt out of the European Union (EU) has already triggered a sharp selloff in global financial markets. British Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned, which will put the execution of the U.K.’s exit onto the next government and allow some time for markets to calm. The trigger of article 50, the beginning of the separation, will now occur in the fall. The vote was carried by voters over the age of 65; younger voters opted to remain in the EU but they will be tasked with the burden of living with the consequences of the decision.
The UK will likely dip into recession
Import prices moved up in March for the first time since June 2015, which is the first in what could be a series of data this week suggesting that inflation is firming and the consumer is doing OK. The data for February were revised down slightly, but hawks at the Federal Reserve will take this report as evidence that the drag created by the strong dollar is finally playing out. That could argue for caution