Shortages and Uncertainty Constrain Hiring
Payroll employment is expected to rise by 145,000 in June, a moderation from the 160,000 pace of the first five months of the year. Private sector payrolls are expected to account for 140,000 of those gains. The threshold to keep the unemployment rate stable is 100,000 per month or slightly less. Gains significantly above 100,000 could theoretically push the unemployment rate down if participation does not move.